Second-Round Series Preview: #2 Nuggets vs. #3 Timberwolves

We could be in for a classic.

The Denver Nuggets advanced to the second round of the NBA playoffs after a hard-fought five-game slugfest with the Los Angeles Lakers. Their reward? The Minnesota Timberwolves, who so far look like one of the hottest teams in the NBA playoffs.

Minnesota went head-to-head with the Phoenix Suns and their three-headed monster of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal in round one. It was projected to be a coin-toss series. Many wondered if the six-seeded Suns could pull off the upset in the first round because of their star power.

Instead, Minnesota eradicated Phoenix in four largely uncompetitive games. The Timberwolves are playing with a lot of confidence after their convincing sweep, and now they take on the defending champions.

The Nuggets will have homecourt advantage after finishing one game ahead of the Wolves in the regular season. That could be very important. Game 7, if the series gets there, would be at Ball Arena. Denver finished with the NBA's second-best home record in the regular season.

Minnesota has a concrete identity: defense. They allowed just 108.9 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. That was the NBA's best defensive rating by a significant margin; the second-place Orlando Magic finished the year with a 111.5 defensive rating.

Minnesota's defense passes the eye test, too. They're one of the few teams in the league that can make Denver's offense look discombobulated, at times, because of the length and athleticism strewn across their roster. Four of their five starters have 6'9 wingspans or bigger—Anthony Edwards (6'9), Jaden McDaniels (7'0), Karl-Anthony Towns (7'4), and Rudy Gobert (7'9)—and two of those players, McDaniels and Gobert, are favorites to make one of the two All-Defensive teams.

Their offense isn't as tidy. They finished just 16th on offense in the regular season, and though they led the first round in offensive rating, there's still a lot to be proven on that end for the Wolves. Edwards and Towns had terrific first-round showings, but now, they'll go up against a much tougher test.

Denver finished ninth in defensive efficiency, the best finish of the Nikola Jokić era. Their defense held up well against Minnesota in the regular season. Denver was particularly dogged about pushing Timberwolf ball handlers away from the middle of the floor and using the sidelines as a third defender of sorts (this is known as 'ICE' pick-and-roll defense).

Minnesota and Denver split their regular season series, 2-2. Again, this is shaping up to be a classic.

This is a very important series for Jamal Murray. We'll get more into why in a later section, but he's going to have to go against a gauntlet of tough perimeter defenders. McDaniels, as mentioned, is a candidate to make an All-Defensive team, and behind him is reserve, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who made Murray work in last year's playoff series between Minnesota and Denver.

Michael Porter Jr. is coming off his best playoff series to date and averaged 22.8 points and 8.4 rebounds on 55.3 percent from the field and a sizzling 48.8 percent from three-point land against the Lakers. You could make the case that because of how hot he's running, maybe it'd be smart for Minnesota to put their best defender, McDaniels, on Porter Jr.

But in the regular season, MPJ had no trouble shooting over the top of McDaniels; that's the benefit of being a full 6'10 with a high release point and quick shooting stroke. When he has it going like this, practically no one in the NBA can affect him.

Perhaps it's just smart for Minnesota to keep Edwards glued to Porter Jr. and live with the results. If he's going to get his no matter what, why bother using important resources on a player who's largely unbothered by contests? McDaniels and Alexander-Walker can instead focus their energy on full-court pressuring Murray, the head of the snake of Denver's offense (at least from a ball-handling perspective).

This feels like another big series for Mike. Denver will need his tough shot-making against a defense this stingy.

One last thing: Edwards has improved a great deal on the defensive end. He's a very tough player to score on one-on-one and will probably get some reps defending Murray. However, his attentiveness away from the ball comes and goes, so it'd be smart for Denver to put him in off-ball actions. Here, the Nuggets have Murray set a back screen on him for Gordon, and Edwards gets completely lost when Jamal rolls to the rim.

If Ant's guarding MPJ, which is what we have projected in this preview, that's an advantage for Denver. Porter Jr. is one of the best off-ball scorers in the league. Make Edwards defend multiple actions.

Nikola Jokić → Rudy Gobert
Aaron Gordon → Karl-Anthony Towns
Michael Porter Jr. → Jaden McDaniels
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope → Anthony Edwards
Jamal Murray → Mike Conley

Breaking news: The guy that averaged 31 points, 9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 51.2 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from three-point land is going to be a tough cover! Yeah, safe to say that Anthony Edwards is atop Denver's scouting report.

Edwards was built in a lab to destroy defenses. He's one of the quickest players in the association, but he's also incredibly strong. That makes him a brutally tough cover for most perimeter defenders. It's tough to match his speed and strength. Denver has thrown a multitude of defenders his way in the past two seasons.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is having an All-Defensive Team-caliber season, so he should get the first crack. Ant outweighs Caldwell-Pope by a full 20 pounds, and his physicality is a tricky proposition for the 31-year-old. He went 17-of-28 from the field when guarded by KCP in the regular season. Aaron Gordon is another option to throw at Edwards just because he can match up in the strength department, but better usage for AG is probably against Towns.

Jamal Murray actually did a pretty nice job against Edwards in the regular season. They're about the same size (Murray is 215 pounds and Edwards is 225), so he's able to absorb some of Ant's physicality. Still, that's a pretty heavy workload on Murray's shoulders to both commandeer the offense and defend one of the most explosive players of the postseason.

Speaking of Murray, it's critical that he—and the rest of Denver's perimeter defenders—stays diligent about going over ball screens when Minnesota has Mike Conley handle the rock in the pick-and-roll. Conley was one of the NBA's best regular season pull-up three-point shooters at 45.7 percent. Going under ball screens is an open invitation for him to take off-the-dribble shots.

This series is ripe with opportunity for Michael Porter Jr.'s improved off-ball defense. He's developed into quite the secondary rim protector that weaponizes his 9-foot standing reach. McDaniels shot just 27.3 percent from three in the first round and was a 33.7 percent shooter in the regular season. Whenever he's stationed on the perimeter, that's a great opportunity for Porter Jr. to sink into the painted area and clog up Minnesota's offense as an extra defender. If that results in open corner threes from McDaniels, so be it. That's a very livable outcome for Denver's defense.

Nikola Jokić should have an easier time in this series. He guarded Anthony Davis for most of the first round, and Rudy Gobert is nowhere close as an offensive player. There's nothing in Minnesota's playbook that should give Denver trouble like the Lakers' pick-and-roll game between Davis and LeBron James.

Finally, Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off a great series against the Suns. He averaged 19.3 points on 53.1 percent from the field and 52.9 percent from three while mostly being guarded by Kevin Durant. This series won't be so easy. Aaron Gordon is one of the best players in the NBA at "guarding up." He held Towns to just 37 percent shooting from the field in last year's first-round series despite a 4-inch height disadvantage. There's proven success for Denver with that specific matchup.

Head coach Michael Malone highlighted two important battlegrounds for his team in the first media availability of the second round. Transition offense was one of them. In their two wins against Minnesota, the Nuggets averaged north of 16 points in transition; they were held to just 6 fastbreak points in the two losses. That, along with rebounding, could be where the series is decided according to Malone. Minnesota will need to hone in on Denver's transition game.

Bench minutes are another massive storyline. Minnesota's rotation is deep. There's an argument to be made that they boast seven starting-caliber players. Sixth Man of the Year winner, Naz Reid, and Alexander-Walker are THAT good. Playing Denver's starters to a draw—or close to it—and winning the reserve minutes could be the magic formula for Minnesota.

The identity of Denver's bench has long been defense. That rings especially true when Malone rolls out his small-ball lineup with Gordon at center. That unit crushed the 2023 playoffs and outscored opponents by 4 points per 100 possessions in this year's regular season.

Minnesota's offense can already appear a bit mechanical as is, but it looked especially bogged down when Malone went to this look. Having five players who can switch on defense took the air out of Minnesota's offensive flow. The Wolves will need to do a better job against this Nuggets bench unit that's interchangeable one through five.

This should be a really important series for Peyton Watson. He guarded Reid a lot in the regular season. Early on, that was quite the challenge for the 21-year-old. But after a year of strengthening his body and learning the tips of the trade from his teammates, Watson did a pretty nice job against Reid in the last regular season matchup.

Christian Braun should also have a big role in this series. He's another option to throw at Edwards, and he might be Denver's best option. He's got everything you could need from a physical perspective: speed, a 40-inch vertical leap that's valuable when contesting shots, and size at 6'6 to throw at the 6'4 Edwards.

The Los Angeles Lakers opened round one with a unique defensive strategy against Nikola Jokić. Instead of having 6'10 Anthony Davis guard Jokić like normal, Los Angeles used 6'8 Rui Hachimura as Nikola's primary defender. Davis, meanwhile, lurked nearby as a secondary shot-blocker.

Minnesota has also defended the Nuggets and Jokić this way, and they might be better at it than anyone in the league.

Part of it is that Jokić absolutely decimates Gobert in single coverage. Nikola made 13-of-21 shots (61.9 percent) when guarded by Gobert in the regular season according to NBA matchup data. Letting Jokić run point guard in transition is a great way to set up one-on-one possessions against the soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

We'll likely see Minnesota use Towns as Jokić's primary defender at times, leaving Gobert on Gordon. Denver likes to place AG in the two dunker spots next to the basket on offense, and Gobert is one of the few players in the league who can affect plays as a secondary shot-blocker while keeping tabs on a high-flyer like Gordon.

Here, Gobert rotates over to help Reid with Jokić, but when Nikola passes to an open Gordon underneath the basket, Rudy is able to recover back to his man and get a hand on the shot. He's got remarkable mobility for a 7'1 player.

This is just one example of Gobert's effectiveness as a "roamer." There are plenty of others from the regular season.

Now, the Nuggets have access to two full seasons of tape against this strategy since Gobert became a Timberwolf in 2022. They'll be prepared. Pushing the pace in transition is one way to make it impossible for Minnesota to set their defense in the halfcourt, but there are other counters at Denver's disposal.

Nikola's midrange game is one of them. Gobert can't really affect plays when Jokić is 12-to-15 feet away from the hoop. He sort of just stands there and watches. Leaving Gordon to lurch at Nikola from this distance is basically asking for an AG alley-oop dunk. Jokić will need to have his in-between game clicking on all cylinders in the second round.

Fading away on shots—instead of leaning into the defender and finishing up close where Gobert is waiting–is another fruitful strategy. Once again, Gobert looks like a helpless bystander while Jokić launches this fading hook shot over the top of Towns.

Attacking early before Gobert's in position is another one. Note how Jokić made his move RIGHT when he caught the ball in the post, and Gobert wasn't able to rotate over in time as the helper.

Jokić will also do genius Nikola Jokić things to beat the strategy because, well, he's Nikola Jokić! Here, he fakes a dribble-handoff to Braun and drives hard to the basket. Gobert is nowhere to be found. Nikola beat him to the punch.

Malone can get creative with his offense and specifically tailor sets to get Nikola good looks. Springing him off-ball, for example, is a great way to keep Minnesota's defense on its toes. Here, Jokić sets a cross screen for Braun and then flies into a pindown screen from Murray. All of this off-ball movement makes Gobert hesitate, and Jokić has room to launch his gelato-soft floater. Off-ball movement will be key in this series, generally speaking, against a defense as suffocating as Minnesota's.

You might even see Malone have Nikola space the floor on occasion. Jokić is a 40.8 percent three-point shooter in his postseason career, so you have to account for him when he's slotted along the perimeter. That should unpack the paint a little bit. From there, Denver can go to other actions to attack the Wolves' defense... like the Gordon and Murray pick-and-roll.

Jokić begins this possession in the corner but then rises to the top of the arc. That pulls Towns out of the painted area, thereby allowing Gordon and Murray to attack McDaniels and Gobert two-on-two. The result is an open Gordon dunk. Jokić's gravity as a shooter can decongest the paint for his teammates.

Lastly, because Towns may be guarding Jokić some, this is a great opportunity for Denver to get one of Minnesota's main scoring options in foul trouble. Only two players averaged more fouls per game than Towns' 3.3 in the regular season, and he struggled with foul trouble throughout most of the first round. Jokić drawing some frustration fouls out of KAT is a great way to both defang Minnesota's offense and get Nikola some freebies at the line.

Edwards put up some gaudy numbers against Phoenix, but there's one that stands out. And no, it's not the outrageous 31 points per game.

His 6.3 assists should have your attention.

Ant had never averaged more than 5.2 assists in a playoff series until this year. He averaged 5.3 assists in the 2023-24 regular season. Passing was always the final piece for Edwards offensively, and it appears that leap is happening in front of us. Great players are just like that sometimes; things can click on the biggest stage.

Phoenix didn't have anyone who could guard Edwards one-on-one, so they showed him a crowd on isolations and drives to the rim. Ant consistently beat those packed-paint defenses by finding the open man.

At times, the Suns would just full-out blitz Edwards and send the double-team. Once again, Ant was remarkably patient against this style of defense, retreating a couple of steps with the ball in his hand and finding the open teammate.

And look, some of Ant's assists against Phoenix were just star-level passes. We're talking, like, crosscourt dimes over three defenders right into the corner man's shooting pocket.

Denver is pretty aggressive defensively. They'll have Jokić play up at the level of screens or blitz when needed. That's in large part how Nikola accumulates so many steals (eighth in total steals during the regular season) and deflections (fifth in the NBA).

Edwards will need to continue capitalizing against help-heavy defenses and trusting his teammates. His passing could very well decide the length of this second-round series.

Jamal Murray had a down series by his standards against the Los Angeles Lakers and still hit two game-winners in five games. That's how ridiculous of a playoff riser he is.

Minnesota likes to keep Gobert, its Defensive Player of the Year anchor, stationed in the painted area. Rudy is a great all-around defender, but he's at his best when he's near the rim erasing close-up shots.

Gobert is a paint defense unto himself, and he's now surrounded by staunch perimeter defenders like McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, and Conley. That is what makes Minnesota's defense so lethal; there are no weak links nor any weak points in the halfcourt.

Those perimeter defenders make it tough to touch the painted area in the first place, and if you do, well, Rudy Gobert is waiting. What looks like a wide-open midrange jumper for Murray turns into an end-of-shot-clock heave from Jokić because of Gobert's defensive gravity.

Getting shots up close won't be easy for Denver. They'll need to create some breathing room offensively.

Murray made 29.4 percent of his three-point shots against the Lakers, but things started to perk up in Game 5 when he went 5-of-10 deep. That's a very, very good thing for Denver. Jamal is by far the team's best off-the-dribble shooter. If he can nail his pull-up jumpers, then the Wolves may have no other option but to throw the kitchen sink at him... and that opens things up for his teammates.

Here's a fun statistic: Murray scored 30 total points on 11-of-17 shooting (65.7 percent) and was 5-of-5 from deep when guarded by McDaniels in the regular season. He rained down tough shots from the midrange and three-point land against the All-Defensive Team-caliber perimeter defender. That's just who Murray is... he's an S-Tier tough shot-maker who directly takes on his greatest challengers.

Murray also shredded McDaniels' pick-and-roll defense. He "rejected" screens by dribbling away from the screener in the pick-and-roll to get McDaniels leaning in the wrong direction.

If McDaniels went under screens, Murray instantly made him pay with pull-up jumpers. He was among the association's best off-the-dribble three-point shooters at 42.6 percent.

Once again, Malone can get creative on offense with Murray to thwart Minnesota's pesky perimeter defense. Here, the Nuggets run a double pick-and-roll with Caldwell-Pope and Jokić screening for Murray in transition (this play is widely known as "double drag" across the NBA). Caldwell-Pope's screen sheds Murray of McDaniels, and Jokić's screen gets him matched up with Kyle Anderson. Jamal completes the play by nailing the pull-up three-pointer over Anderson.

The Nuggets shot just 30.7 percent from three-point land against Los Angeles. Only four teams shot a worse percentage from deep in the first round: the Orlando Magic, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the New Orleans Pelicans, and yup, the Lakers. They'll need to do a better job from behind the arc against the Timberwolves. That defense is way too good at taking away two-point shots to afford a poor three-point shooting series.

The Nuggets NEED Murray's pull-up jumper in this second-round series. It's their best chance at keeping Minnesota's defense honest. Otherwise, Denver is looking at a painted area that resembles a five-car pile-up.

The series between Denver and Minnesota begins Saturday at 5:00 p.m. MT on TNT.

Strap in, folks, we could be in for a great one.

All statistics courtesy of NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, or Cleaning the Glass unless stated otherwise.